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SCORE2-OP 10-year CVD risk

Compute the ESC 2021 SCORE2-OP 10-year fatal plus non-fatal CVD percent for adults aged 70-89 from sex, current smoking, diabetes, systolic blood pressure, non-HDL cholesterol, and European geographic risk region.

LIVE $0.005 USDC GET /api/calc/score2_op

Markdown: /docs/score2-op.md · Canonical: https://magentlab.com/docs/score2-op

Not a medical device. Not a diagnosis, dose, or listing recommendation.

What it computes

When to use

When an agent already has those SCORE2-OP 2021 predictors for a person aged 70-89 without prior CVD and needs that paper's region-calibrated 10-year CVD percent. Not a diagnosis, statin order, SCORE2 (age 40-69), SCORE2-Diabetes, 2013 pooled-cohort equation, or PREVENT.

When not to use

Not a medical device. Not a diagnosis of cardiovascular disease. Not a statin order or treatment recommendation.
SCORE2-OP 2021 for ages 70-89 only. Not SCORE2 (age 40-69). Not SCORE2-Diabetes (no HbA1c, age at diagnosis, or eGFR). Diabetes is a yes/no term in SCORE2-OP.
Not the 2013 ACC/AHA pooled-cohort equations. Not PREVENT. european_risk_region is the paper's geographic calibration (low, moderate, high, very_high), not race or ethnicity.
Charts display non-HDL. The published equation uses total and HDL cholesterol; magent evaluates it at the paper's HDL centering 1.4 mmol/L (TC = non-HDL + 1.4), matching the printed 75-year-old example (non-HDL 4.5).
Caller assigns age, sex, smoking, diabetes, blood pressure, non-HDL, and European risk region. magent does not assay lipids and does not measure blood pressure.

Formula

10-year fatal+non-fatal CVD % = 100*(1-exp(-exp(scale1+scale2*ln(-ln(1-uncal))))); uncal=1-S0^exp(lp); cage=age-73; csbp=(SBP-150)/10; charts display non-HDL mmol/L; equation uses TC and HDL at paper HDL centering 1.4 so TC=non-HDL+1.4, ctc=TC-6, chdl=0; diabetes is included (not SCORE2-Diabetes); men S0=0.7576 lp=0.063*cage+0.425*diabetes-0.017*cage*diabetes+0.352*smoke-0.025*cage*smoke+0.094*csbp-0.005*cage*csbp+0.085*ctc+0.007*cage*ctc-0.356*chdl+0.009*cage*chdl; women S0=0.8082 lp=0.079*cage+0.601*diabetes-0.011*cage*diabetes+0.492*smoke-0.026*cage*smoke+0.102*csbp-0.004*cage*csbp+0.060*ctc-0.001*cage*ctc-0.304*chdl+0.015*cage*chdl; region (scale1,scale2) men low (-0.3400,1.1900) moderate (0.0100,1.2500) high (0.0800,1.1500) very_high (0.0500,0.7000); women low (-0.5200,1.0100) moderate (-0.1000,1.1000) high (0.3800,1.0900) very_high (0.3800,0.6900); SCORE2-OP 2021 Table 2 coefficients and supplement four-decimal scale1/scale2 and baseline survival; age 70-89; geographic region not race; not SCORE2; not SCORE2-Diabetes; not 2013 PCE; not PREVENT

Citation

Title: SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions
Authors: SCORE2-OP working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration
Source: Eur Heart J. 2021;42(25):2455-2467
DOI: 10.1093/eurheartj/ehab312

Worked example

Low-risk region, male, age 75, current smoker, no diabetes, SBP 150, non-HDL 4.5 mmol/L (paper HDL centering 1.4)

Given: age=75diabetes=falseeuropean_risk_region=lownon_hdl_mmol_l=4.5sbp_mm_hg=150sex=malesmoker=true

cage=75-73=2; csbp=(150-150)/10=0; TC=4.5+1.4=5.9; ctc=5.9-6=-0.1; chdl=0; smoke=1; diabetes=0
men lp = 0.4181 (diabetes term included, here 0)
uncal = 1-0.7576^exp(lp); low-risk men scale1=-0.3400 scale2=1.1900
risk_10y_percent 22.5

Same male smoker in the very-high-risk region

Given: age=75diabetes=falseeuropean_risk_region=very_highnon_hdl_mmol_l=4.5sbp_mm_hg=150sex=malesmoker=true

Same lp 0.4181; very_high men scale1=0.0500 scale2=0.7000
risk_10y_percent 43.7

Low-risk region, same labs, male nonsmoker, no diabetes

Given: age=75diabetes=falseeuropean_risk_region=lownon_hdl_mmol_l=4.5sbp_mm_hg=150sex=malesmoker=false

smoke=0 lowers lp to 0.1161
risk_10y_percent 16.3

Also searched as

SCORE2-OP
SCORE2 older persons
ESC 2021 cardiovascular risk age 70-89
10-year CVD risk older adults Europe
European risk region SCORE2-OP
non-HDL cholesterol CVD older
fatal and non-fatal CVD age 70+

Try

Opens the live endpoint. Unpaid browser requests show the paywall; agents should send Accept: application/json.

/api/calc/score2_op?age=75&sex=male&smoker=true&diabetes=false&sbp_mm_hg=150&non_hdl_mmol_l=4.5&european_risk_region=low

Full URL: https://api.magentlab.com/api/calc/score2_op?age=75&sex=male&smoker=true&diabetes=false&sbp_mm_hg=150&non_hdl_mmol_l=4.5&european_risk_region=low

Call

Expect HTTP 402 until you retry with PAYMENT-SIGNATURE. Incomplete query params return HTTP 400 before any quote or charge.

curl -i -H "Accept: application/json" "https://api.magentlab.com/api/calc/score2_op?age=75&sex=male&smoker=true&diabetes=false&sbp_mm_hg=150&non_hdl_mmol_l=4.5&european_risk_region=low"

Parameters

Name	Type	Required	Description
`age`	integer	required	Age in years (integer 70-89). SCORE2-OP 2021 is for ages 70-89. Not SCORE2 (age 40-69).
`sex`	string	required · female, male	Sex used by the sex-specific SCORE2-OP 2021 Table 2 coefficients (female or male).
`smoker`	boolean	required	Current cigarette smoking as assigned by the caller (true or false). magent does not take a smoking history.
`diabetes`	boolean	required	History of diabetes as assigned by the caller (true or false). SCORE2-OP includes diabetes. Not SCORE2-Diabetes (no HbA1c, age at diagnosis, or eGFR).
`sbp_mm_hg`	number	required	Systolic blood pressure in mm Hg (50-250). Enters as (SBP-150)/10. magent does not measure blood pressure.
`non_hdl_mmol_l`	number	required	Non-HDL cholesterol in mmol/L (1-12). SCORE2-OP charts display non-HDL. The published equation uses TC and HDL at the paper HDL centering 1.4 mmol/L (TC = non-HDL + 1.4). The printed 75-year-old example is non-HDL 4.5 mmol/L. magent does not assay lipids.
`european_risk_region`	string	required · low, moderate, high, very_high	Geographic SCORE2-OP 2021 calibration region (low, moderate, high, or very_high) as printed in that paper. Not race. Not ethnicity.

Bulk (POST)

POST the same path with a JSON items array. The first item is the GET unit; each additional item is $0.002. Invalid items return HTTP 400 before settlement.

POST /api/calc/score2_op Max 25 unit_amount + extra_item_amount * (n - 1) extra $0.002 PREVIEW

1 to 25 items. Each item uses the same keys as the GET query parameters.
POST of 1 item costs the same as GET. Lists longer than 25: chunk into multiple POSTs. Extra items still execute; do not pad dummy rows.
The first invalid item fails the whole request (index in the 400 JSON). You are not charged.
HTTP 200 is {count, path, items}. Each items[i] is the GET 200 body for that row.
Catalog misses (empty matches, found=false) stay paid 200s inside that slot.
x402 resource URL is this path plus n and body_sha256. Browsers that prefer text/html get the same paywall as GET; Pay retries POST with the same items.

Example request (fixture)

{
  "items": [
    {
      "age": "75",
      "diabetes": "false",
      "european_risk_region": "low",
      "non_hdl_mmol_l": "4.5",
      "sbp_mm_hg": "150",
      "sex": "male",
      "smoker": "true"
    },
    {
      "age": "75",
      "diabetes": "false",
      "european_risk_region": "low",
      "non_hdl_mmol_l": "4.5",
      "sbp_mm_hg": "150",
      "sex": "male",
      "smoker": "true"
    }
  ]
}

Open bulk paywall →

Opens a two-item fixture on the API host. Unpaid browsers get the same MetaMask paywall as GET; Pay retries POST with those items.

Example 200 (fixture)

{
  "count": 2,
  "path": "/api/calc/score2_op",
  "items": [
    {
      "age": 75,
      "disclaimer": "Not a medical device. Deterministic published-formula or published-code output for autonomous agents. A licensed clinician remains responsible for patient care and billing submissions.",
      "citation": {
        "authors": "SCORE2-OP working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration",
        "doi": "10.1093/eurheartj/ehab312",
        "id": "score2-op-2021",
        "pmid": "34120185",
        "source": "Eur Heart J. 2021;42(25):2455-2467",
        "title": "SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions"
      },
      "formula": "score2_op",
      "formula_expression": "10-year fatal+non-fatal CVD % = 100*(1-exp(-exp(scale1+scale2*ln(-ln(1-uncal))))); uncal=1-S0^exp(lp); cage=age-73; csbp=(SBP-150)/10; charts display non-HDL mmol/L; equation uses TC and HDL at paper HDL centering 1.4 so TC=non-HDL+1.4, ctc=TC-6, chdl=0; diabetes is included (not SCORE2-Diabetes); men S0=0.7576 lp=0.063*cage+0.425*diabetes-0.017*cage*diabetes+0.352*smoke-0.025*cage*smoke+0.094*csbp-0.005*cage*csbp+0.085*ctc+0.007*cage*ctc-0.356*chdl+0.009*cage*chdl; women S0=0.8082 lp=0.079*cage+0.601*diabetes-0.011*cage*diabetes+0.492*smoke-0.026*cage*smoke+0.102*csbp-0.004*cage*csbp+0.060*ctc-0.001*cage*ctc-0.304*chdl+0.015*cage*chdl; region (scale1,scale2) men low (-0.3400,1.1900) moderate (0.0100,1.2500) high (0.0800,1.1500) very_high (0.0500,0.7000); women low (-0.5200,1.0100) moderate (-0.1000,1.1000) high (0.3800,1.0900) very_high (0.3800,0.6900); SCORE2-OP 2021 Table 2 coefficients and supplement four-decimal scale1/scale2 and baseline survival; age 70-89; geographic region not race; not SCORE2; not SCORE2-Diabetes; not 2013 PCE; not PREVENT",
      "sex": "male",
      "diabetes": false,
      "linear_predictor": 0.4181,
      "sbp_mm_hg": 150.0,
      "smoker": true,
      "risk_10y_percent": 22.5,
      "european_risk_region": "low",
      "hdl_mmol_l": 1.4,
      "non_hdl_mmol_l": 4.5,
      "total_cholesterol_mmol_l": 5.9
    },
    {
      "age": 75,
      "disclaimer": "Not a medical device. Deterministic published-formula or published-code output for autonomous agents. A licensed clinician remains responsible for patient care and billing submissions.",
      "citation": {
        "authors": "SCORE2-OP working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration",
        "doi": "10.1093/eurheartj/ehab312",
        "id": "score2-op-2021",
        "pmid": "34120185",
        "source": "Eur Heart J. 2021;42(25):2455-2467",
        "title": "SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions"
      },
      "formula": "score2_op",
      "formula_expression": "10-year fatal+non-fatal CVD % = 100*(1-exp(-exp(scale1+scale2*ln(-ln(1-uncal))))); uncal=1-S0^exp(lp); cage=age-73; csbp=(SBP-150)/10; charts display non-HDL mmol/L; equation uses TC and HDL at paper HDL centering 1.4 so TC=non-HDL+1.4, ctc=TC-6, chdl=0; diabetes is included (not SCORE2-Diabetes); men S0=0.7576 lp=0.063*cage+0.425*diabetes-0.017*cage*diabetes+0.352*smoke-0.025*cage*smoke+0.094*csbp-0.005*cage*csbp+0.085*ctc+0.007*cage*ctc-0.356*chdl+0.009*cage*chdl; women S0=0.8082 lp=0.079*cage+0.601*diabetes-0.011*cage*diabetes+0.492*smoke-0.026*cage*smoke+0.102*csbp-0.004*cage*csbp+0.060*ctc-0.001*cage*ctc-0.304*chdl+0.015*cage*chdl; region (scale1,scale2) men low (-0.3400,1.1900) moderate (0.0100,1.2500) high (0.0800,1.1500) very_high (0.0500,0.7000); women low (-0.5200,1.0100) moderate (-0.1000,1.1000) high (0.3800,1.0900) very_high (0.3800,0.6900); SCORE2-OP 2021 Table 2 coefficients and supplement four-decimal scale1/scale2 and baseline survival; age 70-89; geographic region not race; not SCORE2; not SCORE2-Diabetes; not 2013 PCE; not PREVENT",
      "sex": "male",
      "diabetes": false,
      "linear_predictor": 0.4181,
      "sbp_mm_hg": 150.0,
      "smoker": true,
      "risk_10y_percent": 22.5,
      "european_risk_region": "low",
      "hdl_mmol_l": 1.4,
      "non_hdl_mmol_l": 4.5,
      "total_cholesterol_mmol_l": 5.9
    }
  ]
}

Response

Field	Type	Description
`formula`	string	score2_op
`formula_expression`	string	SCORE2-OP 2021 sex-specific Table 2 coefficients and region scale1/scale2
`age`	integer	Age in years used (70-89)
`sex`	string	female or male used
`smoker`	boolean	Caller-assigned current smoking used
`diabetes`	boolean	Caller-assigned diabetes history used
`sbp_mm_hg`	number	Systolic BP used, mm Hg
`non_hdl_mmol_l`	number	Non-HDL cholesterol used, mmol/L
`total_cholesterol_mmol_l`	number	TC used as non-HDL + 1.4 mmol/L (paper HDL centering)
`hdl_mmol_l`	number	HDL used, always 1.4 mmol/L (paper centering)
`european_risk_region`	string	Geographic calibration region used
`linear_predictor`	number	Sex-specific linear predictor lp, 4 decimals
`risk_10y_percent`	number	Calibrated 10-year fatal+non-fatal CVD risk percent, 1 decimal
`citation`	object	SCORE2-OP working group Eur Heart J 2021 citation
`disclaimer`	string	Not-a-device notice

Example JSON

Machine form of the same example. Frozen fixture. Not a live lookup.

{
  "age": 75,
  "disclaimer": "Not a medical device. Deterministic published-formula or published-code output for autonomous agents. A licensed clinician remains responsible for patient care and billing submissions.",
  "citation": {
    "authors": "SCORE2-OP working group and ESC Cardiovascular risk collaboration",
    "doi": "10.1093/eurheartj/ehab312",
    "id": "score2-op-2021",
    "pmid": "34120185",
    "source": "Eur Heart J. 2021;42(25):2455-2467",
    "title": "SCORE2-OP risk prediction algorithms: estimating incident cardiovascular event risk in older persons in four geographical risk regions"
  },
  "formula": "score2_op",
  "formula_expression": "10-year fatal+non-fatal CVD % = 100*(1-exp(-exp(scale1+scale2*ln(-ln(1-uncal))))); uncal=1-S0^exp(lp); cage=age-73; csbp=(SBP-150)/10; charts display non-HDL mmol/L; equation uses TC and HDL at paper HDL centering 1.4 so TC=non-HDL+1.4, ctc=TC-6, chdl=0; diabetes is included (not SCORE2-Diabetes); men S0=0.7576 lp=0.063*cage+0.425*diabetes-0.017*cage*diabetes+0.352*smoke-0.025*cage*smoke+0.094*csbp-0.005*cage*csbp+0.085*ctc+0.007*cage*ctc-0.356*chdl+0.009*cage*chdl; women S0=0.8082 lp=0.079*cage+0.601*diabetes-0.011*cage*diabetes+0.492*smoke-0.026*cage*smoke+0.102*csbp-0.004*cage*csbp+0.060*ctc-0.001*cage*ctc-0.304*chdl+0.015*cage*chdl; region (scale1,scale2) men low (-0.3400,1.1900) moderate (0.0100,1.2500) high (0.0800,1.1500) very_high (0.0500,0.7000); women low (-0.5200,1.0100) moderate (-0.1000,1.1000) high (0.3800,1.0900) very_high (0.3800,0.6900); SCORE2-OP 2021 Table 2 coefficients and supplement four-decimal scale1/scale2 and baseline survival; age 70-89; geographic region not race; not SCORE2; not SCORE2-Diabetes; not 2013 PCE; not PREVENT",
  "sex": "male",
  "diabetes": false,
  "linear_predictor": 0.4181,
  "sbp_mm_hg": 150.0,
  "smoker": true,
  "risk_10y_percent": 22.5,
  "european_risk_region": "low",
  "hdl_mmol_l": 1.4,
  "non_hdl_mmol_l": 4.5,
  "total_cholesterol_mmol_l": 5.9
}

Client errors (HTTP 400)

Invalid params return 400 without charge. Shared HTTP 402 and 503 meanings: Payments.

HTTP	Code	When
400	`invalid_age`	age must be an integer from 18 to 120 Returned before settlement; you are not charged.
400	`invalid_sex`	sex must be female or male Returned before settlement; you are not charged.
400	`invalid_systolic_bp`	systolic_mm_hg or systolic_bp_mm_hg must be a number from 50 to 250. Returned before settlement; you are not charged.
400	`invalid_score2_region`	european_risk_region must be low, moderate, high, or very_high as printed in SCORE2 2021 (geographic calibration, not race). Returned before settlement; you are not charged.
400	`invalid_score2_op`	SCORE2-OP 2021 inputs must match that paper's age 70-89, sex, smoking, diabetes, systolic BP, non-HDL cholesterol, and European risk region. Returned before settlement; you are not charged.
400	`invalid_items`	POST body must be a JSON object with only an items array Returned before settlement; you are not charged.
400	`invalid_item_count`	items must be an array of 1 to 25 objects Returned before settlement; you are not charged.
400	`invalid_item`	each items entry must be a JSON object Returned before settlement; you are not charged.

Related tools

SCORE2 10-year CVD risk — Compute the ESC 2021 SCORE2 10-year fatal plus non-fatal CVD percent for adults aged 40-69 from sex, current smoking, systolic blood pressure, non-HDL cholesterol, and European geographic risk region.
Reynolds Risk Score — Compute the Ridker JAMA 2007 Reynolds Risk Score 10-year CVD percent for women using clinically simplified Model B (age, SBP, hsCRP, total cholesterol, HDL-C, HbA1c if diabetic, current smoking, and parental MI before age 60).
Framingham CHD — Sum Wilson 1998 sex-specific total-cholesterol point sheets (age, TC, HDL, JNC-V blood pressure, diabetes, smoking) and return the published 10-year CHD percent.

Payment

Unpaid requests return HTTP 402 even if query parameters or POST items are missing or invalid, so CDP and agents can index the path. After a PAYMENT-SIGNATURE, invalid params return HTTP 400 JSON before settlement. magent does not charge. Fix the params, then request a new 402 quote for that complete URL. Catalog misses (empty matches, found=false) are valid paid 200s. Unpaid valid requests return HTTP 402 with a base64 PAYMENT-REQUIRED header. HTTP 503 is not a new quote: retry the same PAYMENT-SIGNATURE. Full handshake and shared payment errors: Payments. Stdio MCP: /docs/mcp.

Guarantees

HTTP 402 is unpaid, including a missing query. After PAYMENT-SIGNATURE, invalid parameters return HTTP 400 before settlement. You are not charged. HTTP 402 never includes the tool JSON.
exact: settlement finishes before the tool (paymentFlow upfront). batch-settlement: verify/deposit before the tool; chargedCumulativeAmount commits after HTTP 2xx. Uncertain or failed settlement fails closed (HTTP 503). Retry the same PAYMENT-SIGNATURE.
HTTP 402 is unpaid only. Do not sign a second authorization because of a 503.
Execution is timeout-bounded and concurrency-capped.
Calculator inputs are stored encrypted for allowlisted operators (Magent Console). They are not in public logs, SSH lookups, catalog, or rollups. Request logs store path without query.